NEWSLETTER MNA - JANUARY, 2010 - nº 43

The diversity of common interests between bric members does not slow down investments in brazil



The so-called BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) do not form an economic bloc (as the European Union), or a common trade association (as Mercosur), but an alliance consisting of several treaties of commerce and cooperation signed in 2002. Such an alliance was proposed among these countries for they share economic conditions with a similar development index. Nothing precludes this group from acting informally in economic and international policy affairs to wield influence thereon, as with the letter of claims addressed to the IMF by late 2008.

According to data sourced from Brasil Escola organization, Brazil is a great agricultural producer; has a diversified industrial park and plenty of mineral resources, and after the discovery of the pre-salt area, it will be self-sufficient in oil and a possible oil exporter, as it also has a large great consuming market. Russia presents large oil and natural gas reserves; it is currently the world’s second biggest oil producer and exporter; the country is provided with the largest natural gas reserves in the planet, in addition to benefiting from a great consuming market.
India relies on qualified professionals engaged in technology-related areas, mainly IT; today the country has a full-fledged hub of both local and international technology industries, and presents a great consuming market.
China, in its turn, presents a vast army of workers, and high investments in technology and infrastructure. The country has several foreign investors acting in the country, a high-level educational system, and 99.8% of its youngsters are literate. Only 10% of the population lives below the poverty line.

In Brics and beyond forecast report published by Goldman Sachs, since 2001, the market shares of these countries had a remarkable increase in their value: Brazil’s has arisen by 369%.
Indeed, the first Goldman Sachs report helped open the rest of the world’s eyes as to the potential of these countries. Since then a significant number of companies started to invest in them.

In a recent antagonistic position, the Financial Times (FT) stated that ‘one decade of fast growth BRICs is not sufficient to catch the baton of global economic leadership from U.S.A. and Western Europe.’ In FT vision, the differences between these countries, as commerce, exchange politics and economic model, let alone structural problems, are presented as an obstacle to the shift of the world power center.

On the other hand, under a more optimistic perception, “among the four Brics, Brazil is undoubtedly the country with the greatest potential to benefit from this race towards the First World. The country has plenty of natural resources and a great possibility of agricultural development, on account of its favorable climate and a fertile soil. Brazil does not face any religious problems, the democratic system is consolidated and steady, the financial system is a sound one and the institutions are respected”, says economist and consultant Martha E. Ferreira.

In the words of John Mauldin, president of the Millennium Wave Advisors, “in view of its advantages as a larger producer of agricultural commodities such as soy, its great workforce and the presence of an ‘energetic’ population with a great entrepreneurial segment, Brazil will experience in the next years an economic growth that the developed countries ‘would love to have’.”

Other factors providing inputs for growth in terms of investments in Brazil include its continental dimensions; recent economic stability; Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on the rise; workforce availability; an increasing consumer market; great availability of natural resources; increased Human Development Index (HDI) rates; money-markets valuation; investments from companies in several industries and growth in the demand for commodities.

The investment markets expect Brazil to grow by 4.8 percent in 2010, after having grown by 0.18% this year, according to the Central Bank of Brazil (Bacen) last weekly survey with some 100 economists. The Brazilian real (BRL) went up 34% this year against the US dollar, the highest appreciation among the 16 most exchanged currencies in the world.